Monday, February 28, 2011

From John Robertson

Last April you might recall my observation, "Several of the changes recorded by the Central Statistical Office in March 2010 seem likely to cause some surprise. Rents are said to have fallen by 16,4%...".

Well, the statistics office has reconsidered its claim that the figures collected showed that rents had fallen. In the January figures, the new figure is shown against a revised December figure, and the figures going back to July 2010 have also been revised upwards. It seems likely that the four months before that have also been revised, but the latest pages provided to not offer the records for those months. I will try to close the gap, which shows up in the graph, but if the stats office does not offer them now, we will get them in the tables to be published in the same months of this year.

The changes shown in the January 2011 figures are almost all minor, but as expected, passenger fares rose by a significant 12,59%. Apart from the indistinct Miscellaneous Other Services increase of 16,56%, the changes were mostly below 1% and the prices of 18 items went down slightly.

Price increases recently seen in world markets for many commodities seem certain to add to production costs, specially for food items, so it seems probable that the costs of many of the goods being imported will start rising a little more rapidly in the coming months. However, at 96,3 the index is still below the December 2008 = 100 figure, so average prices are still lower than they were two years ago. Current estimates suggest that we will get back to 100 only towards the end of this year.

Kindest regards,


No comments:

Post a Comment