news from John Robertson

A summary of the IMF's Article IV assessment of the Zimbabwe economy is attached. It includes a page of indicators based on estimates for 2009 and projections for 2010. To me, it appears that the IMF personnel have accepted government's claims that significant improvements are in progress.


While I do accept that some companies have enjoyed a degree of recovery and a few are making good strides, the limited quantifiable evidence coming my way suggests that the advances have been enjoyed by too few to make the differences claimed, and that almost all of the momentum behind the slow improvements was brought to a standstill by the publication of the indigenisation regulations.

Now the demands of the trades unions are threatening to put the fragile recovery into reverse.
Unfortunately, some very brave and imaginative revisions to political policies would offer the only prospects of quick improvements. The IMF does not involve itself in public debates on such issues, but I very much hope that the right suggestions are being offered in private.